Thursday, September 20, 2012

Day 5 Weather Forecast

Gary continues to send these great, very detailed soaring forecasts to us each morning.  Thanks so much Gary!!  

Here's today's!

Today looks like a fine day for a race! If anyone has time to give any feedback from yesterday or prior days, it would help me establish correction factors for any remaining weather calls.

Stronger lift, a little less wind, and I think there will be just enough moisture and heat to produce some clouds, depending upon where you go. You might even see a few clouds near home base later in the afternoon. Expect the strongest lift over toward the mountains you flew to yesterday, expect better chance of clouds to the mountains sw of you. I feel pretty certain about the clouds sw, and you will probably see wisps or limited clouds over the peak/s to the nw.

Lift: Noon hour- soarable earlier than yesterday, similar to prior days. When it switches on, look for climbs in the 250 to 500 fpm range; by mid-afternoon look for 450-700 fpm, possibility of 750 fpm in a spot or two near Casa Grande or the mountains near Estrella. Lift strengths in the higher gound to the sw will be about 100 fpm weaker but as stated above, you should have some cloud development over there so cloud suck may make up the difference. 

Heights: During the best part of the day, 13,500' to 14,000' might be a reasonable call.

Winds: Similar wind speeds at launch, possibly a little less; Early afternoon, ese winds aloft about 5; As the day turns on, expect se winds aloft around 10, increasing to 12 from mid-afternoon to late afternoon. As you have seen before, its likely to expect stronger winds right at the tops of higher climbs, moderating as you glide down through the boundary layer. Stronger winds overall to the nw than to the sw by about 2-5 mph.

1 comment:

  1. It was not soarable earlier than yesterday. In fact it was much weaker as our local forecaster called. It was not a race but a survival test, due to the clouds earlier. The winds were stronger lower than yesterday. There were no cu's. We didn't see any cu's in the mountains. We got to maybe 10,000'.

    Too much specificity to expect any accuracy. His forecasts have been way off base.